The likelihood of risks arising in an element of a project can be estimated by identifying the major drivers of risk in that element. For example, attributes of maturity, complexity and dependency have been identified as key risk drivers in technical projects involving a substantial mix of hardware and software: risks are more likely to arise if the hardware and software is immature, complex or highly interdependent with other systems or projects. An assessment form for technical procurement projects is shown in Figure 5.1, based on scales developed at the US Defense Systems Management College at Fort Belvoir. An additional commercial risk factor has been added to those developed at Fort Belvoir, to cover more explicitly the sub-contracting arrangements that are common in many large projects.
This framework has been extended to many other kinds of projects and procurements other than large technical ones, using indicators that are specific to the project and the critical success factors of interest. Examples of the kinds of indicators that have been used for this purpose are shown in Table 5.1 and Table 5.2. Details of the scales that may be used are provided below.
Figure 5.2 shows an alternative assessment sheet, in which different risk and consequence indicators can be used in a very flexible manner. This sheet also allows assumptions and other notes on responses to be recorded.
[...] This example illustrates the importance of understanding the organization’s strategic business goals as well as the IT strategic plan and ensuring that the BI application objectives support both. This may be more difficult to do than it appears. Even some of the most sophisticated organizations often do not have easily accessible or well-articulated strategic business goals statements. Become a “detective” and review the organization’s annual report, public statements, newspaper coverage, syndicated articles, and internal memos for valuable information. [...]